Introduction

Background/rationale

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has infected approximately 700 million people and resulted in around 7 million deaths. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community has experienced intense competition as researchers strive to produce the necessary results for diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines to combat the virus. This urgency has led to an increase in research activity and the publication of articles. The rapid dissemination of open access (OA) articles, as part of the global effort to overcome COVID-19, has led to a higher compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of citations and journal impact factor (JIF) in the Journal Citation Reports (JCR) than that of article publications. This author previously discussed this unique phenomenon of JCR metrics in a prior study [1]. In light of this, the question arises: “How has the journal publishing community changed in terms of the number of articles, journals, citations, JIF, immediacy index, or other indexes, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic?” To answer this, the author consulted Scopus AI, an artificial intelligence (AI) tool in Elsevier’s pilot phase as of October 2023. Trained on abstracts of articles published post-2018 in the Scopus database using GPT-3.5, Scopus AI [2] indicated that “overall, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought significant changes to the number of articles and citations, a shift towards OA, and an impact on journal performance.” However, it is important to note that article abstracts typically do not provide detailed data. Therefore, Scopus AI’s response was based on general publishing trends mentioned in abstracts and a limited number of references, rather than on specific data.

It is difficult to ascertain the state of the journal publishing industry during the COVID-19 pandemic using concrete numerical data, as the instant answers provided by AI tools such as Scopus AI and ChatGPT [3] often lack sufficient detail. With the COVID-19 outbreak now stabilized and the World Health Organization (WHO) having lifted the public health emergency of international concern in May 2023, few studies have investigated the phenomenon of journal publishing with specific data on the surge of articles. Although there have been sporadic reports [1,4–6] indicating a rapid publication of SARS-CoV-2 articles and a temporary increase in the overall number of articles during the COVID-19 period, our understanding of this intense and urgent research and publication activity remains imprecise. This specific and unprecedented phenomenon in terms of scholarly communication is not well-defined. Now that we can observe the unique impact on JCR metrics caused by the influx of COVID-19–related articles, it is important to examine the characteristics of these changes in detail using concrete data. Reporting these findings will assist the research and publishing communities in preparing for similar events in the future.

If we utilize JCR data to examine the evolution of journal publishing, we can conduct a macroscopic analysis of the meaning and significance of these changes, as well as their effects on JCR metrics, including articles, citations, the JIF, and the immediacy index. By leveraging the foundational data from JCR, we anticipate that a comparison of the CAGR will elucidate the developments within the journal publishing industry during the COVID-19 period, yielding insights valuable to both the research community and the publishing sector. Consequently, we have undertaken this follow-up study as a continuation of our previous work [1] to explore the publishing trends in scholarly journals.

Objectives

During the 3-year period from 2020 to 2022, there was a global surge in the publication of articles by vaccine and virus researchers addressing the planet’s challenges, particularly concentrated in the medical field. This study aims to retrospectively investigate the specific changes in journal publishing within science and technology by utilizing numerical data from JCR-Science Citation Index Expanded (SCIE). As these findings provide crucial information for future generations within the scientific and publishing communities, it is essential to examine the publication trends of journals indexed in the JCR. Therefore, the objective of this study is to compare and analyze the changes in JCR metrics during the COVID-19 pandemic using JCR-SCIE data and to share the insights with stakeholders in the journal publishing industry.

Methods

Ethics statement

This was not a study with human subjects, so neither Institutional Review Board approval nor informed consent was required.

Study design

This was a literature database-based observational study.

Data collection

The JCR-SCIE dataset, which includes articles (citable items), citations (total citations), JIF, immediacy index, journals, and so on, was downloaded as a text file. The existing journal list from JCR 2016 to 2021 [1] and the new JCR 2022 data were merged based on unique journal identifiers. Journals that appeared in both datasets were consolidated into a single Microsoft Excel file (Microsoft Corp) using journal names and International Standard Serial Numbers. From the JCR-SCIE data spanning 2016–2022, a total of 7,689 journals that were continuously listed with all four basic metrics (articles, citations, JIF, and immediacy index) from the base year of 2016 were selected for analysis. The collected research data were analyzed using Excel’s pivot table feature.

Statistical analysis

This study utilized descriptive statistics for data presentation. Data were organized into tables, and cell proportions were computed. The annual growth rate (expressed as a percentage) was calculated, and the CAGR was employed in conjunction with this measure.

Results

The 7,689 journals listed continuously in JCR-SCIE 2016–2022 that have all four metrics can be seen as stable, core, and major journals that have maintained their value for 7 years in the JCR journal list, which has a small number of entries and exits each year. A comparison of the four metrics during the pre–COVID-19 period (2017–2019) to the baseline year of 2016, and their subsequent performance during the COVID-19 outbreak (2020–2022), is presented for these 7,689 journals in Table 1. The proportion of these 7,689 journals for the comparisons, except for citations, ranged from about 93% in 2017 to about 83% in 2022, as shown in Fig. 1. The increase and decrease of articles by major publishers are clearly illustrated in Fig. 2. For a consistent analysis of the four metrics, only the fixed set of journals was considered, ensuring that variations in the number of JCR-SCIE journals did not influence the results. The proportion of each metric relative to the year 2016 is displayed in Fig. 3, while the annual growth rates are shown in Fig. 4. From Fig. 3, it is evident that the immediacy index, which saw a significant one-time surge in 2020, was lower in 2022 than it would have been had the historical CAGR continued. Fig. 4 reveals that the growth rates for the four JCR metrics experienced fluctuations between 2020 and 2022 but showed signs of normalization in 2022.

Articles

Table 1 shows that the number of articles (cited items) from the 7,689 continuously listed journals featuring research and review articles constituted approximately 89% of all JCR-SCIE articles from 2016 to 2022. The peak occurred in 2021 with over 1.8 million articles, followed by a decline in 2022. The average number of articles published in these journals surged to more than 220 between 2020 and 2022, signifying a significant increase in articles per journal during the COVID-19 pandemic. As shown in Fig. 4, the CAGR of articles from 2016 to 2019 was 4.2%, with the same journals experiencing this annual increase. This CAGR more than quadrupled to 16.9% in 2020. However, due to the impact of the previous year’s surge, it fell below the historical CAGR in 2021 and experienced negative growth in 2022, with fewer articles published than in the preceding year. This decline was even more pronounced than the historical CAGR, plummeting to –5.8% in 2022. This marked an unprecedented reversal in article growth within a span of just 3 years.

Citations

The number of citations across the 7,689 journals continuously listed in the JCR-SCIE has followed a trend similar to that of article counts, reaching a peak in 2021 before declining in 2022. Since 2020, the average number of citations per journal has surpassed 10,000, with a growth rate that has outpaced that of articles, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. As illustrated in Fig. 4, citations increased at a CAGR of 8.4% from 2016 to 2019, which is twice the rate of articles. This rate then surged to 23.7% in the first year of the COVID-19 crisis. Subsequently, the growth rate halved in the following years and, like articles, citations experienced a downturn in 2022. However, the magnitude of the decline in citations was the smallest among the four metrics analyzed, with citations showing the lowest rate of decrease in 2022.

Journal impact factor

The average JIF of the 7,689 journals increased to 3.0 in 2019, reached a peak of 4.3 in 2021, and then decreased to 4.0 in 2022. From 2016 to 2019, the CAGR of the JIF was 5.1%, which was slightly higher than the CAGR for the number of articles but comparable to that of citations. The growth rate surged to a peak of 23.2% in 2020. In 2021, the total JIF experienced a similar pattern of rise and fall as observed with articles and citations, with an increase that exceeded the historical CAGR but did not reach the heights of 2020, followed by a notable decline in growth to –8.0% in 2022. However, in terms of year-on-year growth, the JIF saw the smallest reduction in 2021 compared to 2020. This suggests that the distinctive nature of the JIF metric, which reflects the impact of citations over a 2-year period in conjunction with articles, is influential.

Immediacy index

The immediacy index for the 7,689 journals exhibited fluctuations similar to those observed in other metrics. The average immediacy index for the core JCR-SCIE journals peaked at nearly 1.4 in 2020, then fell to below 1.0 by 2022. Between 2016 and 2019, the CAGR of the immediacy index was 11.0%, the highest among the four metrics. This was followed by a dramatic surge of 67.6% in 2020, a subsequent drop of over 20% in 2021, and a further significant decrease of nearly 10% in 2022. Consequently, the immediacy index experienced its highest growth rate in 2020, coinciding with the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a notably shorter time to citation compared to previous years. This suggests that articles from the initial year, when the sense of urgency and need were at their peak, were frequently cited within the year of publication.

Publishers

As shown in Fig. 2, Elsevier’s articles peaked in 2021, accounting for over a quarter of the market share. Springer’s market share did not decline in 2022, while Wiley maintained a 10% share; this stability is attributed to its acquisition of Hindawi. Among OA publishers, MDPI has become the fourth largest, and Frontiers, ranking as the 11th largest, both continued to experience growth without any decline. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), despite being less relevant to COVID-19 research, has also seen continued growth. Wolters Kluwer, with its focus on the medical field, maintained its position in the top nine, a status that may be partially attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. For the top 10 publishers, excluding Frontiers, the article share in the JCR-SCIE over the past 7 years was 72.9%. Therefore, while publication volumes during the COVID-19 period have remained concentrated among the larger publishers, there have been some shifts in the dynamics between these major players.

Discussion

As articles rapidly increased due to COVID-19, four JCR metrics increased explosively in 2020 and decreased significantly in 2022

As noted by this author [1], the nearly 20% increase in SARS-CoV-2-related articles during the COVID-19 pandemic [7–9] was accompanied by an explosion in JCR metrics in 2020. The need for OA articles has been widely acknowledged during the COVID-19 pandemic, raising the possibility that the surge in articles is attributed to OA publishing [1]. During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, all four metrics for immutable journals witnessed their most rapid growth, continuing to rise in 2021—except for the immediacy index, which declined. In 2021, the number of articles, citations, and the JIF reached record highs, while the immediacy index saw a significant drop from its peak in 2020. The demand for research to combat COVID-19 remained high in 2020 and 2021, but the need for immediate follow-up research and urgent citations waned, as reflected by the decrease in the immediacy index in 2021. By 2022, as the urgency for COVID-19 research markedly diminished, all four metrics experienced negative growth—a unique occurrence and the first time they have all recorded negative growth rates. It is uncommon for JCR metrics to decline from one year to the next, indicating that the decrease was a temporary anomaly associated with the COVID-19 outbreak.

Articles, citations, JIF, and immediacy index have changed dramatically due to COVID-19, requiring caution when evaluating articles using these JCR metrics

As shown in Figs. 2 and 3, the pandemic caused unprecedented fluctuations in these metrics, diverging from their typical trends. Applying historical reliability of JCR metrics to assess the performance of researchers, research institutions, and projects during the COVID-19 era may introduce unprecedented problems [6,9,10]. In particular, the immediacy index experienced its most significant surge in 2020, followed by an even more pronounced decline in 2021. The spike in the immediacy index in 2020 can be attributed to the rapid citation of articles related to SARS-CoV-2 [11]. Citations and the JIF also exhibited substantial changes, with a strong correlation observed between the two metrics. These variations underscore the need to consider the unique and temporal effects of the COVID-19 period when evaluating scholarly articles. Although many practitioners recognize the dramatic shifts in JCR metrics, it is crucial to acknowledge that only a limited number of them are fully cognizant of the precise magnitude of these changes and are equipped to adjust their evaluations accordingly. This limitation is due to the scarcity of research that has been conducted using specific data such as JCR metrics.

Urgent publishing was a major focus during COVID-19, but efforts are now needed to restore normalcy in article publication

This analysis, limited to the 7,689 JCR-SCIE journals that were continuously listed over 7 years, aims to exclude external influences specific to the COVID-19 period. The results are expected to be representative of the majority, if not all, of the JCR-SCIE journals. The pandemic’s impact on journal publishing was not solely positive; it also led to a concentration of funding, research projects, and topics on SARS-CoV-2, driven by the global demand and urgency. Several issues have arisen that require resolution and normalization. These include an excessive focus on COVID-19–related funding and research topics [10], a relative decline in non–COVID-19 articles [7,12], problems with shortened peer-review times [4,5,13–15], an increase in retractions due to hasty peer review [16–19], questions regarding the credibility of papers archived on preprint servers [20], and various other effects of the exceptional spikes and plunges in JCR metrics [6,10]. Assuming that the CAGR of article publication and the immediacy index from before the outbreak had continued during the pandemic, both approached historical CAGR growth levels in 2022 as the situation with COVID-19 began to stabilize, partly due to vaccine rollouts. However, total citations and the JIF [10], which are influenced by citations over 2 years, were still far from returning to their historical CAGR levels in 2022. As the pandemic comes to an end, journal publishing is gradually stabilizing, but citations and JIF are likely to continue to be affected in the following year (2023). Stakeholders in journal publishing should be aware of these impacts and the level of specificity during the COVID-19 period, based on accurate data. It is imperative that we collaborate to normalize scholarly communication, taking into account the rapid changes in metrics and the issues that have arisen in opposition [20].

Conclusion

To investigate the changes in journal and article publishing within the JCR during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022, we downloaded the SCIE data for the years 2016– 2022 and examined the CAGR and growth rate of the 7,689 journals continuously listed over this 7-year period. We observed that the COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented shifts in the number of articles, citations, JIF, and immediacy index. Driven by the surge in COVID-19-related articles, citations, JIF, and immediacy index all saw a dramatic increase in 2020, followed by an unprecedented decline in 2022. While all three metrics reached record highs in 2021, the immediacy index experienced the most significant increase in 2020, followed by notable decreases in 2021 and 2022 as the urgency of citing SARS-CoV-2–related articles waned. Consequently, the journal publishing and scientific communities should collaborate to better understand the data-driven characteristics of these fluctuations in JCR metrics. It is important to evaluate the application of these metrics in article evaluation, taking into account the unique phenomena of the COVID-19 period, and to normalize the adverse effects of the concentration of SARS-CoV-2–related articles, including the unusually rapid changes in metrics. However, our results were analyzed using JCR-SCIE data without including statistical analyses of the causality of the impact of publishing SARS-CoV-2 articles. Therefore, the cause-and-effect relationships mentioned are based on estimates from JCR data, and we anticipate more precise results from subsequent studies.

Notes

Conflict of Interest

No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported.

Funding

The author received no financial support for this article.

Data Availability

Most of the raw data in this article are various indicators of Journal Citation Reports, which is sold as a paid commercial database; therefore, sharing is not available. The raw data analyzed in this article are available from the author upon reasonable request.

Supplementary Materials

Fig. 1.

Proportion of metrics for the 7,689 journals continuously listed in Journal Citation Reports-Science Citation Index Expanded.

Fig. 2.

Change in the number of articles by major publishers in the 7,689 journals continuously listed in Journal Citation Reports-Science Citation Index Expanded. IEEE, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers; ACS, American Chemical Society; RSC, Royal Society of Chemistry; OUP, Oxford University Press.

Fig. 3.

Percentage changes of the 7,689 journals continuously listed in Journal Citation Reports-Science Citation Index Expanded compared to 2016 (estimated compound annual growth rate [CAGR] of the immediacy index is continuously applied to CAGR 2016–2019).

Fig. 4.

Percentage increases by year in the 7,689 journals continuously listed in Journal Citation Reports-Science Citation Index Expanded (the 2016 column is compound annual growth rate for 2016–2019).

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Figure & Data

References

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